In our final Monthly Strategy Report of 2024, we take stock of a historic year for large-cap U.S. equities amidst the most dangerous geopolitical background I have seen in my thirty-five-year career. We also share some thoughts on U.S. inflation and the future Fed policy path on the eve of their final meeting of the year. We updated our TES Model, which continues to send a steadfast bullish signal for the S&P 500 Index. Finally, we tie it all together with four of our favorite charts.

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In this month’s edition, we ponder some of the significant policy changes that will likely accompany the change of Administration in January 2025. We explain why we think U.S. Treasury bond yields are peaking and why equities are likely to run into Inauguration Day. As always, we conclude with three compelling charts that tie it all together.

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In this report, we upgraded our strategic view on Fixed Income (U.S. Treasuries) from Neutral to Overweight and Downgraded our view on Cash from Neutral to Underweight. The past month has been very active for macro variables, including Fed policy, the U.S. elections, the U.S. Treasury market, China stimulus, U.S. economic data, and geopolitics. We touch on these issues and tie it all together with three charts.

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This month, we updated our indicators, models, and strategic views on markets. We continue to anticipate a volatile and eventful fall season full of treacherous geopolitics, important economic data, more Fed policy action, and elections

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This month, we investigate the violent price action across assets last month. Was it all sound and fury signifying nothing? We doubt it and think we are headed for a highly eventful fall season. This month's issue explores the upcoming presidential election, the Fed commencing a new rate-cutting cycle, the US labor market weakening, and flagging liquidity.

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Due to the extreme volatility and price action in the global financial markets over the past several days, we wanted to share some of our latest thinking from our Monday Morning Strategy meeting, which took place hours ago. This slide deck should get you up to speed with where we see risk and opportunity.

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This month, we are downgrading equities to Neutral after maintaining a strategic Overweight in equities since February 2023

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The macro backdrop remains favorable for public and private markets, with global equities in a bull market and significant indexes at or near all-time highs. The Fed is likely to commence its long-awaited rate-cutting cycle in September. Our Tactical Equity and Asset Allocation models show improved alignment, reflecting a positive market outlook.

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This month, we focus on what we believe is developing into a “Goldilocks” style environment for financial assets. We view the current macro backdrop as constructive for public and private markets and see accumulating evidence of a benign cooling in the US economy. The Fed has responded to this by communicating that the bar for further policy rate hikes is very high, while the bar is relatively low for future policy easing. For the first time in three years, the Fed’s dual mandate is in balance between inflation and employment. The liquidity picture continues to improve as QT has been significantly reduced, and fewer banks are tightening lending standards. Our Tactical Equity and Tactical Asset Allocation models have been updated and are in greater harmony than at any time this year. This report also comprehensively updates our market indicators and capital markets framework. We have also included four charts that serve to crystalize our views on the current state of markets, economies, and geopolitics.

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We are downgrading our tactical view on equities from Overweight to Neutral. We are downgrading our strategic and tactical rating on the US Treasury market from Overweight to Neutral. We are initiating on global commodities with a strategic and tactical Overweight rating. In this report, we also update our market indicators and capital markets framework. We tie it all together with five compelling charts which we believe crystalize our view on markets, economies, and geopolitics.

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This month, we offer our views on key risk assets at all-time highs and the changing trajectory of US inflation. In addition, we review our Benchmark Equity and Tactical Asset Allocation models and update our Cycle Monitor.

In this report, we have also updated our strategic and tactical views on equities, fixed income, credit, and the US dollar as we approach the end of the first quarter. As usual, we tie it all together with several compelling charts that help to crystallize our thinking on economies, markets, policy, and geopolitics.

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We have been impressed with the consistent upside to US economic data and the strength of global equity markets. Investors are experiencing a powerful global bull market for equities early in 2024.

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This month, we offer our views on the biggest events that have happened over the last month, such as the “Fed Pivot” and the ferocious risk rally into year-end.

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