In the past week, we have witnessed a decisive presidential election, a consequential Fed meeting, and a burst of price action in financial markets. In the attached essay, we share our key takeaways from a wild week and our thoughts about the future of markets and policymaking.

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In the past week, we have witnessed a decisive presidential election, a consequential Fed meeting, and a burst of price action in financial markets. In the attached essay, we share our key takeaways from a wild week and our thoughts about the future of markets and policymaking.

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This week, China fired off a major coordinated monetary and fiscal policy stimulus package. We believe this is a major event for the global economy and financial markets. In the attached report, we give you our opinion on the magnitude of this event, its likely impact on asset prices, and its impact on global economic growth. This brief report should get you up to speed quickly with our thinking.

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Scott recently traveled to the heart of the industrial Midwest to check the pulse of the U.S. economy, watch a highly anticipated college football game, and meet with one of our wisest clients, Mr. X. They had a wide-ranging conversation on everything from the labor market to inflation to the upcoming U.S. elections. Mr. X is a serious investor, and he asked Scott some very important questions about the major issues that markets and policymakers will be confronting over the coming months. We hope you enjoy and profit from our discussion, which Scott documents in this report.

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In a late summer departure from our usual market strategy work, we share four books that are highly worthy of reading. We hope you can get some vacation before Labor Day, as the calendar promises a very active fall. We will be out with our latest strategy thoughts in our Monthly publication early next week. Enjoy the remainder of the summer!

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In this report, we revisit each of the surprises from our December 2023 report, The Ten Surprises of 2024. We give ourselves a mid-year grade on each surprise and discuss how our thinking on each has evolved since the end of last year. Armed with new information and price action, we attempt to describe how each surprise may perform between now and year-end.

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In this report, we discuss the cruciality of liquidity for stock market success and the thriving financial markets, with many asset classes reaching all-time highs amidst a benign slowdown. We also discuss the global easing cycle, with central banks lowering rates, and how this further supports our optimistic outlook. Key sectors like AI and private credit are flourishing, and there are opportunities in international markets.

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This report was inspired by the IMF/World Bank meetings. Washington D.C. is filled with investors, central bankers, academics, economists, strategists, IMF/WB officials, and policymakers during these meetings. IMF/WB week is a great time to understand where the consensus is positioned and where it could be directionally wrong. This report highlights what we learned from a full week of presentations, one-on-one meetings, lunches, and “idea dinners.”

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In this report, I touch briefly on inflation, the Fed, fiscal policy, gold, risk assets, China, and digital assets. We cover a lot of ground in less than 1,800 words and eight charts. Equity markets continue to surge higher, but there is a lot going on under the surface that is catching our attention.

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We believe credit markets have profoundly changed since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Banks have become disadvantaged and forced to de-risk. Corporate balance sheets are still early in the process of adjusting to a higher cost of capital. Private credit has stepped in to fill the gap, creating an attractive and innovative place for investors to earn elevated risk-adjusted returns. Our research informs us that we may be in the early stages of a long-term bull market for private credit as an asset class.

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Our 2024 Market Outlook report entitled, Staying the Course., focuses on global equities, fixed income, and their respective paths and destinations in 2024. We have a constructive view of the year ahead and make our case in the report for above-average returns for both stocks and bonds.

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Perhaps the most crucial topic for investors to research and forecast is the future path for inflation in the US…

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It is difficult to be positive today. It is either one hell of a wall of worry or one of the worst macro backdrops in modern market history…

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Throughout financial history money has continued to evolve. Money is now increasingly digital, programmable, and more secure because of blockchain tech…

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